By Mary Ellen Ternes
Orson Welles said it best: “Adapt or perish.” If my kids download one more “app” on my iPhone, I really will perish! Other than our newest electronic gizmos and these endless detours on our routes to work, what else might task our adaptive skills?
Whether or not you agree with climate change scientists, most governmental bodies here in the U.S. and around the world are telling us that the world is indeed getting warmer, and that we need to work on adapting to climate change.
According to NASA, 2010 is the warmest year in its 131-year record – even hotter than 2005 or 1998 – and that’s calculated as an average global temperature, including all the record cold temperatures, correcting data for urban heat island effects and other possible measurement errors. Like other similarly focused governmental agencies internationally, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, NASA reports that data generally reflects and supports the observed warming trend around the world. It’s a good thing there’s already a lot of climate change adaptation planning going on.
A good example of a large government agency embracing climate change planning is the Department of Defense (DOD). According to its 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report, based on 2009 reports by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the U.S. Department of Defense is developing strategies for adaptation to anticipated climate change over the next few decades. DOD considers physical effects from climate change as potential threats to our security, including weather events, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons, lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alterations in river flows. All these changes have the DOD retooling itself, anticipating impacts contributing to poverty, environmental degradation and the further weakening of fragile governments – which leads to food and water scarcity, increases in the spread of disease and may cause or contribute to mass migrations of the world’s populations. DOD plans to work with the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection Agency to develop climate change assessment tools in an effort to assess, adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change. DOD also intends to speed up development and deployment of new energy and conservation technologies from labs to military end users.
On a slightly smaller scale, many states have also been responding by developing climate action plans, which may recommend climate adaptation plans. The difference between the two is that climate action plans focus on mitigation strategies (i.e., decreasing emissions of greenhouse gases), including greenhouse gas emission targets, performance standards, emissions cap and trade and carbon sequestration. In contrast, climate adaptation plans focus on preemptive action to address a state’s vulnerability to climate change, weather extremes and variability.
Because specific geographical areas will be affected differently by rising temperatures, state adaptation planning focuses on each specific state based upon anticipated impacts and that state’s vulnerabilities. For example, coastal states including New York, Florida, California, Alaska and those bordering Puget Sound and the Gulf of Mexico are collaborating on strategies for rising ocean levels and anticipated coastal flooding and erosion. The Atlantic and Gulf states are planning for even more or stronger hurricanes, while Alaska, the West and the Great Lakes are planning for decreased snow cover, ice and more storms. All northern regions are planning for flooding from more intense precipitation, while southern regions are preparing for more severe drought. Western regions are planning for wildfires, and all regions are planning for more intense heat waves.
In May 2010, New York City released its own climate change adaptation report, which adopts a risk-based approach to strategically addressing adaptation issues. Some climate impact scenarios paint New York City as a future Venice, Italy, meaning adaptation strategies may be critical. NYC’s report includes climate observations and projections, infrastructure impacts and adaptation challenges, and detailed sections on law and regulation, the insurance industry and indicators and monitoring. The appendices include climate change scenarios and implications for NYC infrastructure.
We in Oklahoma have an advantage in the adaptation department: our weather is so crazy, we’ve learned to be prepared for just about anything. With tornados, ice storms, hail, floods, drought and wildfires – plus, I maintain that hurricane Erin pummeled Watonga in 2007 – it’s never boring in Oklahoma. We can always do a better job being prepared for more of the same. But since we haven’t had to worry about sea level rise since the late Cretaceous Period, what changes are Oklahoma scientists expecting due to climate change apart from our usual chaos? In 2007, our own Oklahoma Climatological Survey, or OCS, released its “Statement on Climate Change and Its Implications for Oklahoma.” OCS predicts warmer summers, more heat waves and extremes, as well as increased drought frequency and intensity, cooling costs and wildfire risks. OCS also predicts warmer winters, decreased heating costs, a longer growing season, increased late-freeze vulnerability and fewer cold-air outbreaks and extremes. Precipitation rates are also expected to change, with longer periods between precipitation events, increased precipitation intensity, risk of flooding and increased need for watering/irrigation when it’s not flooding.
In December 2009, the OCS partnered with the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) in hosting an initial meeting on Oklahoma Climate Adaptation Planning. Since that initial meeting, OCS and SCIPP have sought to continue the dialogue, thanks to a federal grant SCIPP received to conduct an in-depth assessment of the needs for weather and climate information – not limited to climate change – among Oklahoma’s state agencies, tribal governments and communities, beginning in the fall of 2010.
Over the past year, Associate State Climatologist Gary McManus has been invited to discuss climate change projections for Oklahoma with at least 10 different audiences ranging from agricultural organizations to scientists to political leaders. Gary’s purpose is to increase our knowledge about what drives climate change and how it is likely to affect Oklahoma so that those debating policies, on both sides of the political spectrum, can better separate the facts from exaggerated claims.
“Speaking in general,” says Gary, “I think most people I have talked to over the last three years have been receptive to our message on climate change.” Although it is difficult to convey a topic as complex as our climate system in a brief presentation, Gary’s stick-to-the-science efforts have helped audiences understand why many scientists are so concerned about our future climate.
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Mary Ellen Ternes, Esq. is a former chemical engineer from both the EPA and industry. She is currently a shareholder with McAfee & Taft and co-chair of its Renewable and Sustainable Energy Industry Group, and is serving a three-year term as City of Nichols Hills Environment, Health and Sustainability Commissioner.
This article was published in the February 2011 issue of Slice Magazine. It is reproduced with permission from the publisher. © 2011 Southwestern Publishing.